I move the motion relating to gas shortfalls in the terms in which it appears on the notice paper.

Deputy Speaker, this motion speaks to the heart of our energy security and our economic future. It asks a simple question. Will Australians have access to affordable, reliable energy in the years ahead? Or will we allow uncertainty and inadequate regulation to undermine our prosperity? My motion is about effective gas market regulation.

And up front, I want to make something very clear. We have enough gas in this country. We do not have a gas supply problem. We have a gas export problem. To the extent that we have shortfalls predicted on the east coast, it is an infrastructure and distribution problem, not a problem of production.

And as always, we need to be clear about the facts. Two developments have transformed our gas market. First, in 2015, liquefied natural gas exports began from Gladston, Queensland. And within a decade, 75% of total east coast gas demand was being exported overseas. Overall, around 80% of gas produced in Australia is being exported. Second, production from traditional southeastern fields, particularly Gibsland, is falling sharply. Peak day production capacity there will drop by 58% between 2024 and 2028.

Governments have tried to manage this risk since 2017. We've seen the Turnbull government’s Australian domestic gas security mechanism codified to become a heads of agreement under the Morrison government and then the gas market code introduced by the Albanese government. These measures have helped avert shortfalls but at a cost. Buyers and sellers alike are frustrated. Long-term contracts have shrunk and short-term deals have surged from 28 petajoules in 2021 to 79 petajoules in 2024. This is not stability. This is volatility. And Australians deserve better. They deserve a gas market that’s predictable, reliable, affordable, and transparent.

It should not be difficult to achieve this. And yet today, our system depends on ad hoc ministerial decisions and quarterly negotiations with LNG exporters. Deputy Speaker, this is no way to run a market. And a market that underpins manufacturing, electricity generation, and household energy security.

And worse still, the fact that a huge majority of our gas is exported means Australians may be in an absurd position of paying more for our gas than people in international markets do. Japan has even started reselling the Australian gas that it imports which is surplus to requirements at a substantial profit.

Something has to give and my motion sets out a clear path forward.

First, it calls for the government to ensure that uncontracted gas is offered to the domestic market at a reasonable price before it is exported. This principle is not radical. It's common sense.

Second, it calls for an end to the cycle of changing interventions. We need a single integrated framework that operates continuously, not a patchwork of mechanisms that require constant activation. Export licenses should carry an ongoing obligation to supply the domestic market.

Third, the motion calls for a thorough review of the future gas strategy and that review must go beyond supply. It must consider demand management, the impact of gas users across the economy and our climate commitments. Gas will play a role in the transition to net zero. But what role and for how long? Without clarity, investors cannot make decisions about pipeline storage or regasification terminals. And without those investments, the risk of a southeast gas shortfall will increase.

Fourth, the motion calls for transparency. Today, the ACCC monitors the gas market while the AER oversees the broad energy system. And this duplication creates confusion. The monitoring role should move to the AER supported by AEMO’s forecasting with a requirement to publish aggregated price and contract data and market imbalances. Transparency is the foundation for efficiency and trust.

And finally, the motion anchors reform in two objectives: an ongoing obligation of LNG exporters to supply the domestic market and improved transparency through regular publication of market data.

These changes will give suppliers, investors, and large users the confidence they need to invest in clean technologies and infrastructure. And Deputy Speaker, this is not just about gas. It's about energy security, economic competitiveness, and the credibility of our transition to net zero.

If we fail to act, manufacturers will face higher costs. Householders will face even higher energy bills, and our electricity system will face greater risk during peak demand. If we succeed, we’ll have a market that works—one that delivers affordable energy, supports jobs, and aligns with our climate goals.